497 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 252034
 TCDEP4
  
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013
 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013
  
 IVO HAS BECOME A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME
 WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  
 THE SYSTEM HAS LACKED ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12
 HOURS...AND IS OVER SSTS OF AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS.  AS A
 RESULT...ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN...AND
 IVO IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC
 ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT
 AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT-B OVERPASS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/7 KT.  THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD SLOW DOWN
 AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE MODEL
 GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE UPDATED
 TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
 MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
 NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
 PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
 STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE 
 FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/2100Z 25.7N 115.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  12H  26/0600Z 26.4N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  26/1800Z 26.7N 116.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  27/0600Z 26.6N 116.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  27/1800Z 26.5N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN