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 778 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 232037
 TCDEP4
  
 TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013
 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IVO
 HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE
 ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
 40 KT...AND THESE WINDS ARE MAINLY IN AN AREA ABOUT 150 N MI FROM
 THE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES.
 
 THE REFORMATION MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION VERY UNCERTAIN...WITH THE
 BEST ESTIMATE OF 360/5.  IVO REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
 LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD
 AN AREA OF SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER
 THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEST OF
 CALIFORNIA.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE
 GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...
 THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE.  THE
 GFS...HWRF...AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST IVO TO MOVE NORTHWARD
 ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
 STATES.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST
 THE SYSTEM TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER STALLING OVER
 THE PACIFIC WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE NAVGEM
 SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...SHOWING A CONTINUED
 SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE TRACK FORECAST STILL FOLLOWS
 THE ECMWF/UKMET SCENARIO AND CALLS FOR THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS OF
 IVO TO STALL WEST OF BAJA AFTER 48 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
 SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE POSITION OF
 THE REFORMED CENTER.
  
 GRADUAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY UNTIL IVO REACHES COLDER SEA
 SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 24 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE
 IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE COLD WATERS
 WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
 SHOWS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST...BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO IT.
  
 THE NEW FORECAST TRACK AND THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD REQUIRE
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE
 BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS
 EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
 NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE
 NEXT FEW DAYS...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH
 FLOODING.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  23/2100Z 19.5N 111.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  24/0600Z 20.6N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  24/1800Z 22.6N 112.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  25/0600Z 24.4N 113.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  25/1800Z 26.1N 114.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  26/1800Z 28.0N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  27/1800Z 28.0N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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