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 339 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 230232
 TCDEP4
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013
 800 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013
  
 ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER...THE
 OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN STRUCTURE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY
 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE
 CIRCULATION...AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDS AS FAR EAST AS THE
 SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO WHERE HEAVY RAINS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING.
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN
 INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A
 TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...AND IT HAS THE
 OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
 BEFORE THE CIRCULATION REACHES THE COOLER WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA
 CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. IN FACT...NONE OF THE MODELS BRING THE
 CYCLONE ABOVE 40 TO 45 KNOTS DURING THAT PERIOD.
  
 THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE
 LONG TERM MOTION APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330
 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY LOCATED ON THE
 SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
 WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND IS HEADING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE
 CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP
 THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
 CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE NEXT 4 DAYS...BRINGING THE
 CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
 PENINSULA. THE NHC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
 CONSENSUS...AND HAS GIVEN A LITTLE LESS WEIGHT TO THE GFS WHICH
 SHOWS A TRACK CLOSER TO THE PENISULA.
  
 MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE COULD BEGIN SURGING
 NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
 AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
 INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  23/0300Z 17.9N 112.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  23/1200Z 18.7N 112.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  24/0000Z 20.0N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  24/1200Z 21.5N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  25/0000Z 23.0N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  26/0000Z 26.0N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  27/0000Z 28.0N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  28/0000Z 28.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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