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 814 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 041435
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016
 800 AM PDT THU AUG 04 2016
 
 After Ivette produced very little convection near its low-level
 center last evening, a large burst of thunderstorms developed around
 0700 UTC, and the cirrus canopy has continued to expand since then.
 However, there is no data to support that this convection has led to
 any intensification yet, and the maximum winds remain 40 kt based on
 Dvorak CI numbers of 3.0/45 kt and 2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB,
 respectively.
 
 Vertical shear appears to have decreased below 10 kt, which may be
 fostering the recent increase in convection.  With sea surface
 temperatures remaining between 27-28C and shear expected to be low
 during the next three days or so, intensification is still
 anticipated.  But because Ivette has failed to strengthen during the
 past 24 hours, the peak winds shown by the intensity models continue
 to decrease, and none of the guidance makes the cyclone a hurricane.
 For now, the NHC official forecast continues to show Ivette reaching
 hurricane intensity in 2-3 days, but this forecast may need to be
 adjusted if Ivette does not start strengthening soon.  A significant
 increase in shear and marginal SSTs should lead to fairly quick
 weakening on days 4 and 5.
 
 Ivette is moving westward, or 280/13 kt.  A strong subtropical high
 located north of the cyclone is expected to steer Ivette westward
 for the next 36 hours.  After that time, a break in the ridge
 northeast of Hawaii should cause the storm to slow down and move
 west-northwestward through the end of the forecast period.  Again
 there have been no significant changes in the track guidance, and
 the updated NHC track forecast remains very close to the TVCN
 multi-model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/1500Z 15.1N 126.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  05/0000Z 15.2N 128.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  05/1200Z 15.4N 130.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  06/0000Z 15.7N 132.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  06/1200Z 16.3N 134.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  07/1200Z 17.5N 137.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  08/1200Z 18.5N 140.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  09/1200Z 19.5N 143.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg
 
 
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