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 722 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 031432
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016
 800 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2016
 
 Ivette's convective pattern is gradually improving, with a band
 lying to the west of a central cluster of deep convection.
 However, recent microwave data still shows the low-level center
 displaced to the northeast of the deepest convection due to some
 shear.  Dvorak intensity estimates are T3.0/45 kt from SAB and
 T2.5/35 kt from TAFB; the initial intensity is therefore raised to
 40 kt.
 
 Sea surface temperatures are expected to be 27-28C for the next
 96 hours, while the vertical shear affecting the cyclone is
 forecast to gradually diminish over the next couple of days.  These
 conditions would seem to support steady or even fast strengthening.
 Surprisingly, the SHIPS, LGEM, GFDL, and HWRF models only intensify
 Ivette to near the hurricane threshold.  Given the seemingly
 favorable environment, the NHC official forecast is above all of the
 main intensity models, with the exception of COAMPS-TC, and it does
 not deviate from the peak intensity indicated in the previous
 advisory.  Slightly lower SSTs and increasing shear are likely to
 cause some weakening by days 4 and 5.
 
 A strong subtropical ridge extending westward from northern Mexico
 is causing Ivette to move quickly west-northwestward at 285/15 kt.
 The ridge is expected to remain entrenched north of Ivette for the
 next three days, putting the cyclone on a westward heading but with
 a gradually decreasing forward speed.  By days 4 and 5, Ivette
 could gain a little more latitude due to a break in the ridge that
 will develop northeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  There is high
 confidence in the future track of Ivette due to a tightly clustered
 model envelope, and the NHC track forecast is mainly an update of
 the previous forecast.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/1500Z 14.6N 120.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  04/0000Z 15.0N 122.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  04/1200Z 15.2N 125.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  05/0000Z 15.4N 128.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  05/1200Z 15.6N 130.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  06/1200Z 16.5N 135.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  07/1200Z 18.0N 138.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  08/1200Z 19.0N 141.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg
 
 
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