085 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 030859
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016
 200 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2016
 
 The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has gradually improved
 since yesterday afternoon, with an increase in banding over the
 western portion of the circulation.  Microwave images show
 that the center is located near the northeastern edge of the
 convective band due to moderate northeasterly shear, but a new
 burst of deep convection has very recently developed near the
 estimate center location.  Although earlier ASCAT data showed
 maximum winds around 30 kt, the recent improvement in organization
 and Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support increasing the
 initial intensity to 35 kt.  Ivette becomes the ninth tropical storm
 to form in the eastern Pacific basin since July 2nd.
 
 Ivette is moving westward at an atypically fast speed of 17 kt.
 A strong subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should keep
 it moving westward to west-northwestward during the next several
 days, with the forward speed gradually decreasing as it nears the
 western portion of the ridge.  By late in the period, Ivette should
 turn west-northwestward and decelerate further as a break in the
 ridge develops between 140W and 150W.  The updated NHC track is
 similar to the previous advisory, but has been nudged southward to
 be closer to the multi-model consensus.
 
 The northeasterly shear affecting the tropical cyclone is forecast
 to decrease during the next 24 hours.  This should allow
 strengthening while Ivette moves over warm water and remains
 in a moist environment.  The NHC intensity forecast is above the
 statistical guidance and is closer to the HWRF model, which brings
 Ivette to hurricane strength in a couple of days.  Increasing
 southwesterly shear, slightly cooler SSTs, and drier mid-level air
 should cause gradual weakening late in the period.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/0900Z 14.2N 119.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  03/1800Z 14.6N 121.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  04/0600Z 15.0N 124.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  04/1800Z 15.2N 127.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  05/0600Z 15.4N 130.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  06/0600Z 16.0N 134.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  07/0600Z 17.0N 138.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  08/0600Z 18.0N 142.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown