374 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 030255
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016
 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016
 
 The deep convection associated with the tropical depression is
 showing some limited banding features in combination with a
 developing central dense overcast.  Dvorak classification numbers
 are gradually rising, though a blend of TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS-ADT
 values still indicates an intensity of about 30 kt.
 
 A 1941Z AMSR2 microwave image indicated that the center of the
 system was slightly farther north than earlier indicated.
 Extrapolating forward in time from that point suggests a center
 that is near the northeastern edge of the deep convection, perhaps
 reflecting the moderate northeasterly shear affecting the cyclone.
 The initial motion is assessed at a fast 17 kt toward the
 west-northwest, primarily due to the steering of an east-west
 extended deep-layer ridge to its north.  The tightly packed track
 guidance suggests a turn toward the west at a slightly slower rate
 of forward speed during the next few days.  The NHC track forecast
 is slightly north of the previous advisory for the next day due to
 the more northerly initial motion, and then nearly the same out
 through the end of the period.  This is supported by the global
 and HWRF model consensus.
 
 The system should only gradually intensify during the next
 day or so because of the moderate northeasterly shear and as the
 system develops an inner core structure.  A more steady
 strengthening is anticipated out to about day three as the shear
 relaxes and the system moves over 28C water and through a very
 moist and unstable atmosphere.  Around day four or five, the cyclone
 may start gradually weakening as SSTs decrease and the shear
 increases again.  The NHC intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN
 consensus and peaks just slightly higher than that from the
 previous advisory.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/0300Z 13.9N 117.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  03/1200Z 14.5N 120.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  04/0000Z 15.1N 123.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  04/1200Z 15.4N 126.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  05/0000Z 15.7N 129.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  06/0000Z 16.5N 133.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  07/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  08/0000Z 18.5N 142.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Landsea