725 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 022033
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016
 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016
 
 Satellite images indicate the area of low pressure well southwest
 of mainland Mexico has become better organized.  ASCAT data
 indicate the center is fairly well defined, with curved banding
 features forming around the surface center.  Thus tropical cyclone
 advisories are being initiated on this system. Dvorak estimates and
 the ASCAT data support an initial wind speed of 30 kt.  Gradual
 strengthening is forecast for the next few days while the cyclone
 remains over warm water, with weak-to-moderate shear and high mid-
 level humidity.  The official forecast is a bit higher than the
 model consensus, since most of the guidance has had a low bias this
 season.
 
 ASCAT and microwave data give a relatively confident initial motion
 of 290/15.  A strong subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is
 expected to steer the cyclone relatively quickly to the west over
 the next few days.  The ridge is forecast to weaken on days 4 and 5,
 which should cause a decrease in forward speed while the system
 approaches the central Pacific.  Track guidance is in remarkable
 agreement for the first advisory, and the official forecast is near,
 but slightly faster than, the model consensus.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  02/2100Z 13.3N 115.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  03/0600Z 13.9N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  03/1800Z 14.5N 121.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  04/0600Z 15.0N 124.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  04/1800Z 15.5N 127.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  05/1800Z 16.1N 132.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  06/1800Z 16.9N 136.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  07/1800Z 18.0N 140.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake