202 
 WTNT44 KNHC 170245
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  59
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004
  
 RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTER OF IVAN HAS
 BECOME LESS DEFINED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE HIGHEST SURFACE
 WINDS REPORTS HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN AROUND 30 KT...AND THAT IS THE
 INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/12. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
 COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT IVAN WILL GRADUALLY CURVE
 NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD...AND DECELERATE THROUGH 48 HR.
 AFTER THAT... A HIGH AMPLITUDE SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
 FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S....WHICH WILL ACT TO
 BLOCK IVAN AND TURN THE REMNANT CIRCULATION SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
 OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.
  
 SINCE THE REMNANT IVAN CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT...AT LEAST IN
 THE MID-LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...
 A MAJOR RAINFALL EVENT APPEARS LIKELY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER
 MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  THERE IS ALSO A CONTINUED TORNADO
 THREAT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
 
 THIS WILL BE LAST FORECAST DISCUSSION ON IVAN. FUTURE INFORMATION
 CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
 PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT34
 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 4 AM CDT...FRIDAY MORNING.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/0300Z 34.3N  86.2W    30 KT
  12HR VT     17/1200Z 35.2N  85.2W    30 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     18/0000Z 35.9N  83.1W    25 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     18/1200Z 36.0N  81.4W    25 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     19/0000Z 35.3N  81.0W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     20/0000Z 34.0N  83.0W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
  96HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
  
  
 $$