237 
 WTNT44 KNHC 162035
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  58
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004
  
 SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE IVAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE
 MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.  WSR-88D DOPPLER WINDS FROM
 BIRMINGHAM SHOW 50-65 KT ABOVE THE SURFACE.  BASED ON THIS...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT.  IVAN SHOULD WEAKEN TO A
 DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HR.  IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL
 CYCLONE BY ABOUT 72 HR...ALTHOUGH SOME REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA
 WILL LIKELY PERSIST THEREAFTER.
  
 DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAT IVAN
 WILL CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DECELERATE THROUGH 48 HR...
 AND THEN TURN SOUTHEASTWARD BY 72 HR.  BASED ON THIS...THE FORECAST
 TRACK MOVES THE CENTER A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS
 PACKAGE...WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR BEING JUST A LITTLE
 SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
 UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE THE REMAINS OF IVAN WILL GO AFTER 72 HR.
  
 IVAN WILL REMAIN A MAJOR RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 THERE IS ALSO A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
 THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT.
  
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/2100Z 33.1N  87.0W    50 KT...INLAND
  12HR VT     17/0600Z 34.5N  85.9W    40 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     17/1800Z 35.6N  84.3W    30 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     18/0600Z 36.3N  82.2W    25 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     18/1800Z 36.3N  80.5W    25 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     19/1800Z 35.0N  80.0W    20 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     20/1800Z...INLAND
  
  
 $$