364 
 WTNT44 KNHC 160847
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  56
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004
  
 THE EYE OF IVAN CROSSED THE COAST AROUND 0700Z JUST WEST OF GULF
 SHORES ALABAMA AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
 HURRICANE SCALE. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY NOW IS 100
 KNOTS AND BECAUSE IVAN IS ALREADY INLAND...FURTHER WEAKENING IS
 ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SINCE IVAN IS SO LARGE AND INTENSE...IT IS
 EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WELL INLAND...UP TO ABOUT
 150 MILES ALONG ITS TRACK.
  
 THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 010 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.
 THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 THEREAFTER....IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE BLOCKED BY A DEVELOPING HIGH
 PRESSURE SYSTEM. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS IVAN
 STALLING NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN
 THAT AREA.  OBVIOUSLY THIS COULD BE A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT OVER
 PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN THE COMING DAYS.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/0900Z 30.9N  87.7W   100 KT
  12HR VT     16/1800Z 32.5N  87.2W    65 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     17/0600Z 34.7N  86.2W    35 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     17/1800Z 36.0N  85.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     18/0600Z 37.5N  83.0W    25 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     19/0600Z 37.5N  83.0W    20 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     20/0600Z 36.5N  83.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 
  
  
 $$