972 
 WTNT44 KNHC 150839
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004
  
 THE FEW SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION
 SURROUNDING THE LARGE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. MOST OF THE
 STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AT THIS
 TIME. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. A
 RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST PENETRATED THE EYE AND ESTIMATED A
 MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 935 MB...938 MB FROM A DROP AND FLIGHT LEVEL
 WINDS OF 132 KNOTS. THIS SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120
 KNOTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED BUT WE
 EMPHASIZE THAT IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS
 HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.
  
 IVAN IS ON TRACK AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340
 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN STEERING AND THE
 HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHERLY TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL
 WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT
 WITH GUIDANCE. ONCE IVAN MAKES LANDFALL AND WEAKENS...STEERING
 CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE AND IVAN COULD STALL OR MOVE
 ERRATICALLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IVAN COULD PRODUCE A
 SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IN THAT AREA.
  
 SINCE IVAN IS SO LARGE AND INTENSE...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY
 STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WELL INLAND ALONG ITS PATH.  NOTE THAT
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE A
 HURRICANE AT ABOUT 12 HOURS AFTER LANDFALL.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/0900Z 26.1N  87.8W   120 KT
  12HR VT     15/1800Z 27.6N  88.0W   120 KT
  24HR VT     16/0600Z 29.6N  88.2W   120 KT
  36HR VT     16/1800Z 32.0N  87.7W    70 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     17/0600Z 33.5N  87.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     18/0600Z 35.0N  85.0W    25 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     19/0600Z 35.0N  85.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     20/0600Z 35.0N  85.0W    20 KT...INLAND
  
  
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