Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 728 
 WTNT44 KNHC 140231
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
 
 A SHORT TIME AGO...THE EASTERN EYEWALL OF THE HURRICANE PASSED OVER
 THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.  THE LAST CENTRAL PRESSURE READINGS FROM
 BOTH THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 914 MB A FEW
 HOURS AGO...SUGGESTING THAT IVAN WAS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY...
 AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ENOUGH OF THE CORE INTERACTED WITH LAND
 TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.  THEREFORE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY
 IS HELD AT 140 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS
 IVAN MOVES FARTHER NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ENCOUNTERS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER
 IVAN SHOULD STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE UNITED
 STATES COAST. 
 
 IVAN WOBBLED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO AND NOW THE
 ESTIMATED MOTION IS JUST BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST...
 325/8. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE HURRICANE IS A
 MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NEAR AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
 CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS SHOWS A
 NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO
 THE NORTH AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
 AS THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST...A SLIGHT TURN TO THE EAST COULD
 OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RESPOND TO SLIGHT WESTERLY STEERING
 FLOW.  ONCE AGAIN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A
 LITTLE TO THE WEST...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL
 AND GFS SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE RUN IS ONLY
 SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE NHC TRACK.
 
 THE SIZE OF THE HURRICANE AND THE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRE THE
 ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF
 COAST AT THIS TIME.  ONCE AGAIN WE EMPHASIZE THAT...DUE TO FORECAST
 ERRORS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK AS THE
 EVENTUAL LANDFALL POINT.  THE ENTIRE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IS AT
 RISK.
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/0300Z 22.0N  85.4W   140 KT
  12HR VT     14/1200Z 23.1N  86.2W   140 KT
  24HR VT     15/0000Z 24.8N  87.3W   135 KT
  36HR VT     15/1200Z 26.6N  88.2W   130 KT
  48HR VT     16/0000Z 28.5N  88.5W   120 KT
  72HR VT     17/0000Z 32.0N  87.5W    65 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     18/0000Z 34.0N  86.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     19/0000Z 35.5N  83.5W    20 KT...INLAND
  
 $$
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for IVAN

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman