Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 932 
 WTNT44 KNHC 112035
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004
  
 THERE HAVE BEEN SOME GRADUAL CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
 THE LAST DAY OR SO WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE HURRICANE MOVING ON A
 TRACK NOT AS CLOSE TO SOUTH FLORIDA.  WHILE THIS MAY BE GOOD NEWS
 FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...IT IS NOT SO FOR OTHER REGIONS OF THE EASTERN
 GULF COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
 AT THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
 EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN
 FORCING THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...DELAYING THE
 EXPECTED NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD TURN. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWARD TURN
 IS STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF
 MEXICO...IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA AND
 OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TRACK INCREASES
 THE HURRICANE RISK FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION AND
 DECREASES IT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN
 SHIFTING GRADUALLY WESTWARD.
 
 AS WAS THOUGHT POSSIBLE...IVAN HAS REGAINED CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH.
 A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 161 KNOTS AT 700 MB AND AN
 EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 914 MB. THE DROP MEASURED 918 MB BUT IT
 HAD 29 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
 TO 145 KNOTS. THERE ARE NO SKILLS IN PREDICTING CHANGES IN
 INTENSITY WITH SUCH EXTREMELY INTENSE HURRICANES...SO IVAN IS KEPT
 AT 145 KNOTS UNTIL LANDFALL IN CUBA. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS
 FORECAST TO INCREASE...SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED.
 NEVERTHERLESS... IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UNITES STATES AS A
 MAJOR HURRICANE.   
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/2100Z 18.2N  79.3W   145 KT
  12HR VT     12/0600Z 18.7N  80.5W   145 KT
  24HR VT     12/1800Z 20.0N  82.0W   145 KT
  36HR VT     13/0600Z 21.5N  83.1W   145 KT...NEARING CUBA
  48HR VT     13/1800Z 23.1N  84.0W   130 KT
  72HR VT     14/1800Z 26.5N  85.0W   115 KT
  96HR VT     15/1800Z 31.0N  85.0W    60 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     16/1800Z 36.0N  83.0W    25 KT...INLAND
  
  
 $$
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for IVAN

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman