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 266 
 WTNT44 KNHC 110844
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004
  
 A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY FLYING IN THE
 HURRICANE.  THE CENTRAL PRESSUURE IS 924 MB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
 SUPPORT 125 KT SURFACE WINDS.  HOWEVER THE HURRICANE IS UNDERGOING
 AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND MAY SOON BE INTENSIFYING AND THE
 INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 130 KT.  WITH LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR AND
 WARM SSTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGHENING FOR THE
 NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IVAN THREATENS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THEN CUBA.
  
 THE EYE TOOK A WESTWARD WOBBLE OVERNIGHT AND REMAINED FAR ENOUGH
 SOUTH OF JAMAICA SO THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE
 REMAINED OFFSHORE.  NEVERTHELESS...JAMAICA EXPERIENCED HURRICANE
 FORCE WINDS AND IS STILL DOING SO.
  
 THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SAME FORECAST SCENARIO OF A TURN
 TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE RUNS OF THE FOUR GLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE
 MODELS...GFS...GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...ALL SHIFTED THEIR TRACK A
 LITTLE TO THE LEFT.  SOME OR ALL OF THE SHIFT COULD BE DUE TO THE
 SHORT TERM WESTWARD WOBBLE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
 ADJUSTED A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE
 RIGHT OR EAST OF ALL THE MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN IS CLOSER
 TO A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS
 INDICATE A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND SO
 DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
   
 FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/0900Z 17.5N  78.0W   130 KT
  12HR VT     11/1800Z 18.3N  79.0W   135 KT
  24HR VT     12/0600Z 19.3N  80.1W   140 KT
  36HR VT     12/1800Z 20.6N  81.4W   140 KT
  48HR VT     13/0600Z 22.0N  82.5W   140 KT
  72HR VT     14/0600Z 25.9N  83.8W   115 KT
  96HR VT     15/0600Z 30.5N  84.0W    90 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     16/0600Z 36.0N  83.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  
  
 $$
 
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