300 
 WTNT24 KNHC 101442
 TCMAT4
 HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  33
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
 1500Z FRI SEP 10 2004
  
 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
 ISLANDS.
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
 THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.
  
 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
 WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
 SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA.
  
 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN
 DISCONTINUED FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
  
 INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
 MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N  75.1W AT 10/1500Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  10 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  934 MB
 EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
 64 KT....... 50NE  25SE  25SW  40NW.
 50 KT....... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 34 KT.......150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
 12 FT SEAS..360NE 140SE 140SW 150NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N  75.1W AT 10/1500Z
 AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  74.7W
  
 FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.2N  76.5W
 MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
 64 KT... 50NE  25SE  25SW  40NW.
 50 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 34 KT...150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.3N  78.0W NEAR/OVER JAMAICA
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 64 KT... 50NE  25SE  25SW  40NW.
 50 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 34 KT...150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.2N  79.0W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 64 KT... 50NE  25SE  25SW  40NW.
 50 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 34 KT...150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.5N  80.2W APPROACHING CUBA
 MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
 50 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 34 KT...150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 23.5N  82.0W
 MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 50 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 34 KT...150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 28.0N  83.0W
 MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.5N  82.5W INLAND
 MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N  75.1W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
  
 $$