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 708 
 WTNT44 KNHC 101443
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004
  
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
 IVAN DOES NOT APPEAR AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY.
 HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES AND WELL-ESTABLISHED
 OUTFLOW.  YOU CAN SEE THE CONVECTIVE RING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
 EYEWALL ON HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES.  SUPER RAPID SCAN IR
 IMAGES SHOW THE VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE RING CURRENTLY RE-DEVELOPING
 AROUND THE EYE. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
 SURFACE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 934 MB BUT THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
 REMAIN AT 144 KNOTS. THIS SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125
 KNOTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE IVAN MOVES
 NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY
 WEAKEN THE HURRICANE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IVAN WILL RE-STRENGTHEN
 SOME BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA WHERE THE OCEAN IS QUITE
 WARM. ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
 INCREASE AND IVAN SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. IVAN IS EXPECTED TO
 REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE UNTIL IT REACHES THE UNITED STATES.          
 
 THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT
 10 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS. AS
 THE RIDGE WEAKENS...THE STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD WEAKEN TOO...AND
 THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
 TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS STILL HIGH
 CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IT BECOMES
 UNCERTAIN AFTER THE HURRICANE CROSSES CUBA WHEN GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
 THE HURRICANE COULD CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO OR COULD TURN
 NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. IN FACT...THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
 THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT FAVOR ONE
 SCENARIO MORE THAN THE OTHER...AND BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD
 OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO VERY NEAR AND EVENTUALLY OVER FLORIDA.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      10/1500Z 16.5N  75.1W   125 KT
  12HR VT     11/0000Z 17.2N  76.5W   125 KT
  24HR VT     11/1200Z 18.3N  78.0W   115 KT NEAR JAMAICA
  36HR VT     12/0000Z 19.2N  79.0W   120 KT
  48HR VT     12/1200Z 20.5N  80.2W   125 KT APPROACHING CUBA
  72HR VT     13/1200Z 23.5N  82.0W   110 KT
  96HR VT     14/1200Z 28.0N  83.0W   100 KT
 120HR VT     15/1200Z 32.5N  82.5W    40 KT INLAND 
  
  
 $$
 
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