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 573 
 WTNT44 KNHC 100813
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004
  
 REPORTS FROM AN USAF RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL
 PRESSURE IS UP SEVERAL MB FROM THE PREVIOUS MISSION...AND IS NOW
 929 MB.  THE OBSERVED FLIGHT LEVEL AND DROPSONDE WINDS SUPPORT
 ABOUT 125 KT OR LESS MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND ...SO THE OFFICIAL WIND
 SPEED IS LOWERED TO THIS VALUE.  THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKS
 A LITTLE RAGGED ON THE NORTH SIDE...BUT THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY
 GOING THROUGH FLUCTUATIONS.  VERTICAL SHEAR AND SSTS ARE FAVORABLE
 FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS.  AFTER 48 HOURS...
 THE LAND MASS OF CUBA AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BRING
 ABOUT SOME WEAKENING...BUT IVAN COULD STILL REMAIN A RATHER
 POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF
 MEXICO.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11.  THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS
 REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
 NORTH OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS AS IVAN IS STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN
 PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS OVER THE
 GULF OF MEXICO.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODELS AFTER 48 HOURS. 
 THE GFS...UKMET...AND GFDL ALL SHOW A TRACK OVER JAMAICA...THEN
 WESTERN CUBA AND THEN FLORIDA.  THE NOGAPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
 ARE FURTHER WEST AND ALSO SHOW A TRACK NEAR JAMAICA AND THEN OVER 
 WESTERN CUBA...BUT THEN MOVE IVAN OVER THE GULF TO THE WEST OF
 FLORIDA.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE
 OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ADVISORY AND SHOWS A TRACK OVER FLORIDA 
 IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS.  IT REMAINS... OF
 COURSE...MUCH TOO EARLY TO BE VERY CERTAIN ABOUT THE THREAT TO
 FLORIDA.
 
 THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DECIDED TO WAIT A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE
 PUTTING UP A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN
 CUBA.
  
 FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      10/0900Z 15.9N  74.2W   125 KT
  12HR VT     10/1800Z 16.9N  75.6W   125 KT
  24HR VT     11/0600Z 18.0N  77.4W   130 KT
  36HR VT     11/1800Z 19.1N  78.9W   135 KT
  48HR VT     12/0600Z 20.4N  80.2W   135 KT
  72HR VT     13/0600Z 23.3N  81.9W   115 KT
  96HR VT     14/0600Z 27.0N  82.5W   115 KT
 120HR VT     15/0600Z 31.0N  82.5W    50 KT...INLAND
  
  
 $$
 
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