091 
 WTNT24 KNHC 091452
 TCMAT4
 HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
 1500Z THU SEP 09 2004
  
 AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
 WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
 THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
 WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
  
 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
 ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
 BARAHONA PENINSULA FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES.  A TROPICAL STORM
 WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
 REPUBLIC FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.
  
 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
 WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS
 EASTWARD.
  
 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...
 AND CURACAO AND ALL WARNINGS FOR VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA HAVE BEEN
 DISCONTINUED.
  
 INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
 MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N  71.4W AT 09/1500Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  13 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  920 MB
 EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
 64 KT....... 50NE  25SE  25SW  50NW.
 50 KT.......100NE  75SE  35SW 100NW.
 34 KT.......140NE 125SE  75SW 140NW.
 12 FT SEAS..300NE 140SE 140SW 200NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N  71.4W AT 09/1500Z
 AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  70.8W
  
 FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.3N  73.3W
 MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
 64 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 50 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW 100NW.
 34 KT...150NE 130SE  75SW 150NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.0N  75.2W
 MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
 64 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 50 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW 100NW.
 34 KT...150NE 130SE  90SW 150NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.5N  77.3W
 MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
 64 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
 50 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.
 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 150NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.5N  79.0W
 MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
 50 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.0N  80.5W
 MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
 50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 130NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 24.0N  82.0W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 28.5N  82.0W INLAND
 MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N  71.4W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
  
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