496 
 WTNT24 KNHC 090816
 TCMAT4
 HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
 0900Z THU SEP 09 2004
  
 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
 CURACAO.
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
 THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
 COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI
 FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT
 AU PRINCE.
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
 ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA
 LATER THIS MORNING.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
 COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
 PEDERNALES.  TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
 OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.
  
 INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
 MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  70.0W AT 09/0900Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  13 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  922 MB
 EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
 64 KT....... 50NE  25SE  25SW  50NW.
 50 KT.......100NE  75SE  35SW 100NW.
 34 KT.......140NE 125SE  75SW 140NW.
 12 FT SEAS..300NE 140SE 140SW 200NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  70.0W AT 09/0900Z
 AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N  69.5W
  
 FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.8N  72.0W
 MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
 64 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 50 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW 100NW.
 34 KT...150NE 130SE  75SW 150NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.2N  74.3W
 MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
 64 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 50 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW 100NW.
 34 KT...150NE 130SE  90SW 150NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 17.6N  76.4W
 MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
 64 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
 50 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.
 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 150NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.1N  78.3W
 MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
 50 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.0N  80.2W
 MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
 50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 130NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 24.0N  81.0W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 28.0N  81.0W...INLAND OVER FLORIDA
 MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N  70.0W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
  
 $$