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 101 
 WTNT24 KNHC 072047
 TCMAT4
 HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
 2100Z TUE SEP 07 2004
  
 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR  ST. VINCENT...THE
 GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
  
 AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR TOBAGO HAS BEEN
 DONGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE...
 AND ST. LUCIA...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.
  
 AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
 ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR
 BONAIRE...CURACAO AND ARUBA.
  
 AT 5 PM AST...2100Z..THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A
 HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA.
  
 INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
 SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  62.0W AT 07/2100Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  16 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  956 MB
 EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
 64 KT....... 60NE  15SE  15SW  60NW.
 50 KT.......100NE  75SE  25SW 100NW.
 34 KT.......140NE 125SE  30SW 140NW.
 12 FT SEAS..300NE 140SE 140SW 200NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  62.0W AT 07/2100Z
 AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N  61.2W
  
 FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.5N  64.5W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 64 KT... 45NE  15SE   0SW  45NW.
 50 KT...100NE  75SE  25SW 100NW.
 34 KT...140NE 125SE  30SW 140NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.5N  67.7W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 64 KT... 45NE  15SE  15SW  45NW.
 50 KT...100NE  75SE  25SW 100NW.
 34 KT...140NE 125SE  30SW 140NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.7N  70.7W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 64 KT... 45NE  45SE  15SW  45NW.
 50 KT...100NE  75SE  25SW 100NW.
 34 KT...150NE 125SE  50SW 125NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.0N  73.5W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 50 KT...100NE  70SE  25SW  75NW.
 34 KT...150NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.0N  77.5W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 50 KT...100NE 100SE  25SW 100NW.
 34 KT...150NE 125SE  75SW 125NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 20.0N  81.0W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 23.0N  84.0W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N  62.0W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
  
 $$
 
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