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 431 
 WTNT44 KNHC 072047
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004
  
 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 956 MB
 WITH A DROP AND 955 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700 MB. IT ALSO MEASURED
 118 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND A CLOSED EYEWALL OF 14 NMI DIAMETER.
 T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 105 KNOTS. SHIPS MODEL INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW OVER
 THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO SHOW A
 FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. IN
 ADDITION...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
 WHERE THERE IS AN AREA OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...HIGH OCTANE GAS
 FOR HURRICANES...WHICH COULD ADD TO THE INTENSIFICATION.  IVAN
 COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN FORECAST. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE
 WILL BE A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
 SEA...WESTERN CUBA OR SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN FIVE DAYS.
  
 THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING AND IVAN IS STILL MOVING
 TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST
 BECOMES UNCERTAIN. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A TROUGH OVER
 THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS
 FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE LEAVING A LARGE AREA OF WEAK STEERING
 CURRENTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
 MEXICO.  BY THEN...THE HURRICANE COULD MOVE NORTH OVER WESTERN CUBA
 AND SOUTH FLORIDA AS INDICATED BY THE GFS...THE UK AND NOGAPS...OR
 CONTINUE ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL
 AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THE LATTER ASSUMES THAT THE TROUGH IN
 THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER THE HURRICANE
 NORTHWARD...AND THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO STEER THE
 HURRICANE TOWARD WESTERN CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER OPTION BIASED TOWARD THE
 CONSENSUS.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      07/2100Z 12.0N  62.0W   105 KT
  12HR VT     08/0600Z 12.5N  64.5W   115 KT
  24HR VT     08/1800Z 13.5N  67.7W   120 KT
  36HR VT     09/0600Z 14.7N  70.7W   120 KT
  48HR VT     09/1800Z 16.0N  73.5W   120 KT
  72HR VT     10/1800Z 18.0N  77.5W   120 KT
  96HR VT     11/1800Z 20.0N  81.0W   120 KT
 120HR VT     12/1800Z 23.0N  84.0W   120 KT
  
  
 $$
 
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