252 
 WTPA43 PHFO 102035
 TCDCP3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022015
 1100 AM HST FRI JUL 10 2015
 
 DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE NEAR A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
 CENTER...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SATELLITE PRESENTATION THIS MORNING.
 DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO...JTWC...AND SAB ALL
 CAME IN AT 1.5...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. IT IS
 IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SMALL...WHICH
 HISTORICALLY LEADS TO UNDERESTIMATION OF INTENSITY BY THE DVORAK
 TECHNIQUE.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR IS 325/07 KT. TWO-C REMAINS IN A COMPLEX
 AND WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE SYSTEM IS
 STILL BEING INFLUENCED BY A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD THE
 REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ELA...WHICH IS
 CAUSING A WEAKNESS IN A STRONG HIGH LOCATED FAR NORTHWEST OF
 HAWAII. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...TWO-C LIES NEAR A WEAKNESS
 BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH JUST NORTHWEST OF
 KAUAI. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY
 OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS DEEP RIDGING BUILDS TO
 THE NORTH OF TWO-C. ALTHOUGH THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 
 A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK ON DAY TWO AND BEYOND...THERE IS 
 CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN INTENSITY 
 FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
 
 SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE 
 RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF TWO-C. IN THIS FORECAST
 PACKAGE...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION WAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY IN
 ORDER TO BE CLOSER TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. ASIDE FROM THE
 GFDL MODEL...MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS NO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...LIKELY
 DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF TWO-C. THIS IS LEADING TO A LARGER THAN
 NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  10/2100Z 12.1N 155.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  11/0600Z 12.8N 155.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  11/1800Z 13.8N 157.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  12/0600Z 14.3N 158.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  12/1800Z 14.4N 160.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  13/1800Z 14.2N 164.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  14/1800Z 14.0N 168.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  15/1800Z 13.9N 172.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER WROE