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 622 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 161435
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT THU SEP 16 2004
  
 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ISIS HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY THIS
 MORNING...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CELLS REMAINING AT THIS TIME. 
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB...AND 35 KT FROM
 TAFB AND AFWA.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO
 40 KT...AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.
 
 THE CENTER HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION
 AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY DUBIOUS 280/2.  DYNAMICAL MODEL
 GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TO
 WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW
 THIS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SHIFTED SOUTH
 OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.
  
 ISIS IS OVER 25-26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE SATELLITE
 IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED.  UNLESS
 THE CONVECTION RETURNS...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...WITH
 ISIS BECOMING A DEPRESSION IN 12 HR AND A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HR. 
 THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL FORECAST.  THE SHIPS MODEL
 CALLS FOR SOME REGENERATION WHEN THE SYSTEM DRIFTS INTO WARMER
 WATER.  THAT SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED FOR THE MOMENT.
  
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/1500Z 18.3N 132.6W    40 KT
  12HR VT     17/0000Z 18.3N 133.0W    30 KT
  24HR VT     17/1200Z 18.2N 133.5W    25 KT
  36HR VT     18/0000Z 18.1N 134.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  48HR VT     18/1200Z 17.8N 134.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N 136.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     20/1200Z 17.5N 137.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     21/1200Z 17.5N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
 $$
 
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