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 523 
 WTPZ22 KNHC 112036
 TCMEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122004
 2100Z SAT SEP 11 2004
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 120.8W AT 11/2100Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   8 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 120.8W AT 11/2100Z
 AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 120.4W
  
 FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.5N 122.2W
 MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.5N 124.2W
 MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.5N 126.1W
 MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.5N 127.9W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.5N 131.0W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 17.5N 132.5W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.5N 134.5W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 120.8W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
  
  
 $$
 
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