896 
 WTPZ22 KNHC 111432
 TCMEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122004
 1500Z SAT SEP 11 2004
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 120.2W AT 11/1500Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   9 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 120.2W AT 11/1500Z
 AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 119.6W
  
 FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.8N 121.5W
 MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
  
 FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.8N 123.5W
 MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.8N 125.2W
 MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.8N 126.9W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.0N 130.0W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 18.0N 132.0W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 120.2W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
  
  
 $$