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 206 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 111433
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT SAT SEP 11 2004
  
 AN EARLIER AMSU-B DEPICTED THAT ISIS WAS EXPOSED TO THE
 NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. ENHANCED BD-CURVE ANIMATION
 INDICATES A NEW DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION ABOUT 50 NM SOUTHWEST OF
 THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...25 KT FROM SAB. A 11/0200Z
 QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED UN-FLAGGED 30 KT WINDS BENEATH THE EASTERN
 EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THEREFORE THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT.
 THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS WEAK NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THROUGH 72
 HOURS...HOWEVER...UW-CIMSS WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS DEPICTS 10 TO 20 KT
 OF EASTERLY SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY TREND FROM THE SHIPS AND
 THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECASTS SEEMS REASONABLE...THE ACTUAL
 INTENSITY VALUES MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGH. THE GFDL ALSO INCREASES THE
 INTENSITY TO 60 KT IN 24 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS
 REVEALS WARM WATERS ABOVE 26 DEGREES CELSIUS SOUTH OF 20 N. BASED
 ON AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND WARM WATERS...THE FORECAST
 INTENSITY IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
 THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS. 
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 280/9. LARGE SCALE MODELS AGREE
 WITH STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF A MID-UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
 MEXICO/BAJA THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
 MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM BAJA WILL CAUSE A
 REDUCTION IN MOTION BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOWEVER...WEIGHED MORE HEAVILY
 ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A REDUCTION IN SPEED BEYOND 72 HOURS.
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/1500Z 17.8N 120.2W    30 KT
  12HR VT     12/0000Z 17.8N 121.5W    30 KT
  24HR VT     12/1200Z 17.8N 123.5W    35 KT
  36HR VT     13/0000Z 17.8N 125.2W    40 KT
  48HR VT     13/1200Z 17.8N 126.9W    45 KT
  72HR VT     14/1200Z 18.0N 130.0W    45 KT
  96HR VT     15/1200Z 18.0N 132.0W    45 KT
 120HR VT     16/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W    45 KT
  
  
 $$
 
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