157 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 110833
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT SAT SEP 11 2004
  
 THE TOPS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW
 HOURS...BUT IF NEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS POP UP WITHIN THE NEXT 6
 HOURS...ISIS WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.
 ALL AGENCIES ARE REPORTING T NUMBERS NOW...WITH TAFB AT T1.0...SAB
 AT T1.5 AND KGWC AT T2.0. ANOTHER RECENT HIGH DENSITY QUIK SCAT
 PASS SHOWED A LOT OF 25 AND 30 KT WINDS AND A FEW POSSIBLE
 CONTAMINATED 35 AND 40 KT WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT
 30 KT.  SHIPS NOW WANTS TO MAKE ISIS A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 12
 HOURS.  ALSO...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...DUE WEST...KEEPS THE SYSTEM
 CLOSER TO WARM SSTS AND IN VERY LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR 72 HOURS. 
 IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ISIS CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF OUT TO 120 HOURS.  THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST NOW LARGELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. 
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9.  ISIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF A
 DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
 FORECAST PERIOD.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BUT HAS
 SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH AND RUNS DUE WEST.
  
 FORECASTER JARVINEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/0900Z 17.4N 119.3W    30 KT
  12HR VT     11/1800Z 17.4N 120.7W    35 KT
  24HR VT     12/0600Z 17.4N 122.7W    40 KT
  36HR VT     12/1800Z 17.4N 124.9W    45 KT
  48HR VT     13/0600Z 17.4N 126.9W    45 KT
  72HR VT     14/0600Z 17.4N 131.2W    45 KT
  96HR VT     15/0600Z 17.4N 135.6W    45 KT
 120HR VT     16/0600Z 17.4N 139.7W    45 KT
  
  
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