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 947 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 102030
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT FRI SEP 10 2004
  
 ISIS HAS REMAINED CONVENTION FREE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...DESPITE AN
 APPARENTLY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE AND WARM OCEAN.  ALL THAT REMAINS
 IS A LOW LEVEL WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.  THE SYSTEM WAS
 UNCLASSIFIABLE BY THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE BUT MAINTAINED A
 1.5 FT/2.0 CI FROM ALL AGENCIES BASED ON THE MODEL EXPECTED
 T-NUMBER.  A 13Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
 TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...ISIS HAS
 BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  EVEN THOUGH THE SHIPS
 AND GFDL MODELS TRY TO RE-INTENSIFY ISIS AFTER 36-48 HOURS...IT
 WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ISIS TO RECOVER AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
 KEEPS ISIS AS A DEPRESSION UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS IN 96
 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9.  ISIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF A
 DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
 FORECAST PERIOD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WESTERLY
 TRACK BUT IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE
 WEAKENED STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE AND SUBSEQUENT DECOUPLING FROM THE
 STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
 PREVIOUS TRACK BUT MAINTAINS THE CYCLONE WITH THE CURRENT INITIAL
 MOTION.
  
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      10/2100Z 17.5N 117.1W    30 KT
  12HR VT     11/0600Z 17.9N 118.5W    30 KT
  24HR VT     11/1800Z 18.5N 120.9W    30 KT
  36HR VT     12/0600Z 18.7N 123.4W    30 KT
  48HR VT     12/1800Z 18.8N 126.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     13/1800Z 19.0N 131.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     14/1800Z 19.0N 136.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
 $$
 
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