284 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 100849
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT FRI SEP 10 2004
  
 ISIS APPEARS TO STILL BE AFFECTED BY EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS
 SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL INTERPRETATION
 OF THE GFS FORECAST...SO SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
 NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS BEFORE ISIS ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATER.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/08.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS FOR A
 MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS AS THE STORM IS
 STEERED BY A RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
 THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
 THE GLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS.
  
 FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      10/0900Z 17.6N 115.4W    40 KT
  12HR VT     10/1800Z 17.9N 116.7W    40 KT
  24HR VT     11/0600Z 18.5N 119.0W    45 KT
  36HR VT     11/1800Z 19.0N 121.5W    45 KT
  48HR VT     12/0600Z 19.3N 124.0W    50 KT
  72HR VT     13/0600Z 19.4N 129.6W    50 KT
  96HR VT     14/0600Z 19.2N 135.5W    45 KT
 120HR VT     15/0600Z 19.2N 142.3W    45 KT
  
  
 $$