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 213 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 030238
 TCDEP4
 
 HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014
 
 Iselle is still strengthening.  The central dense overcast has
 become more symmetric since the last advisory, with cloud top
 temperatures cooling slightly. The eye was also becoming better
 defined but has recently become obscured by overshooting convective
 tops.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB at 0000 UTC
 were T5.0/90 kt and UW-CIMSS ADT values are at 5.4/99 kt.  These
 data support increasing the initial intensity estimate to 95 kt.
 
 The initial motion estimate is just north of due west or 275/09. A
 subtropical ridge north of Iselle should allow the current motion to
 persist in the short term.  However, a mid-latitude trough digging
 roughly along 130W should temporarily weaken the ridge during the
 next day or two, causing the forward speed of Iselle to nominally
 decrease.  When the subtropical ridge rebuilds over the central
 Pacific after day 3, Iselle should move on a westward and then
 west-northwestward heading a faster forward speed.  The track
 guidance is in relatively good agreement throughout the forecast
 period, and the forecast track is adjusted only slightly to the
 south in the direction of the multi-model consensus TVCE.
 
 It is difficult to see Iselle strengthening much further.  Although
 northeasterly shear over the cyclone is forecast to decrease during
 the next couple of days, the thermodynamic contribution from the
 environment should gradually become less favorable.  This would
 suggest that some additional intensification is possible in the very
 short term, followed by slow weakening after 24 hours.  The one
 caveat would be that with little shear and marginally favorable
 thermodynamic conditions Iselle could evolve into an annular
 hurricane and maintain a somewhat higher intensity during the next
 few days.  By days 4 and 5, even less favorable thermodynamic
 factors and an uptick in south-southwesterly shear should result in
 quicker weakening as Iselle approaches the Hawaiian Islands.  The
 intensity forecast is somewhat higher than the previous one in the
 short term and represents a blend of the multi-model consensus and
 FSU Superensemble output.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/0300Z 15.2N 131.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  03/1200Z 15.4N 132.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  04/0000Z 15.6N 134.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
  36H  04/1200Z 15.7N 136.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
  48H  05/0000Z 15.8N 137.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  06/0000Z 15.9N 141.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  07/0000Z 16.6N 146.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  08/0000Z 17.8N 152.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain
 
 
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