760 
 WTPA43 PHFO 090104
 TCDCP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35...CORRECTED
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092014
 1100 AM HST FRI AUG 08 2014
  
 INTERACTION WITH THE BIG ISLAND VOLCANO SUMMITS APPEARS TO HAVE 
 DONE QUITE A NUMBER ON ISELLE THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE 
 IMAGERY NOW SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF CYCLONICALLY ROTATING 
 SHOWER BANDS...BUT WITHOUT THE WELL DEFINED CORE STRUCTURE OF A 
 TYPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SMALLER VORTICITY 
 CENTERS ROTATING AROUND A BROAD CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER...WHICH AIR 
 FORCE RECONNAISSANCE WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING JUST BEFORE 1800 UTC.
 
 NOT SURPRISINGLY...RECON FOUND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IN 
 ISELLE CONTINUES TO RISE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD 
 DEAL OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER VORTEX OF WHAT REMAINS 
 WITH ISELLE. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 44 KT WAS REPORTED BY PHNY...
 LANAI CITY AIRPORT...80 NM NNE OF THE CENTER AROUND 18Z. THE SFMR 
 RECORDED SOME 40 KT WINDS 70 NM TO THE NW OF THE CENTER AS WELL. 
 THUS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 45 KT. ALTHOUGH 
 ISELLE WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER SSTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL 
 DAYS...THE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS THE SEVERE DISRUPTION TO THE INNER 
 CORE MAKE SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY. A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH 
 OVER THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SHEAR OVER 
 ISELLE. NEVERTHELESS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY UNANIMOUS IN 
 KEEPING THE BROADER CIRCULATION A LITTLE STRONGER FOR A LONGER 
 TIME...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT 
 FOR THAT...BUT BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
 THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT. WHAT REMAINS 
 OF ISELLE SHOULD SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS 
 AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH WEAKENS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...A 
 NEW HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL 
 CAUSE ISELLE TO SPEED UP. THE REMNANT LOW OF ISELLE IS THEN EXPECTED 
 TO GAIN LATITUDE FASTER AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY 
 OF THIS HIGH. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  08/2100Z 19.5N 158.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  09/0600Z 19.9N 160.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  09/1800Z 20.3N 162.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  10/0600Z 20.6N 164.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  10/1800Z 21.0N 166.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  11/1800Z 21.9N 172.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  12/1800Z 23.2N 177.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  13/1800Z 26.9N 176.0E   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER R BALLARD
  
 CORRECTED SPELLING 3RD PARAGRAPH