051 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 150234
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008
 800 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2008
  
 THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN ISELLE'S CLOUD PATTERN THIS
 EVENING.  ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS
 DEPICT THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS BENEATH THE NORTHEASTERN
 EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO THE PERSISTENT 20 TO 30 KT OF
 EASTERLY SHEAR.  ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY MODELS SUGGEST THAT
 THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
 CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN ADDITION TO GRADUALLY
 DECREASING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THIS SCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN
 THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR ISELLE TO BECOME A
 REMNANT LOW IN 2 DAYS.    
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/8...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS...THE GLOBAL
 MODELS CONTINUE TO REVEAL A NORTHWEST TRACK BIAS...POSSIBLY DUE TO
 SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE RATHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
 A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ISELLE. 
 CONSEQUENTLY...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED TO THE LEFT OF THE
 MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS NUDGED TOWARD THE NOGAPS WHICH APPEARS TO BE
 ACCURATELY DEPICTING THE LOW TO MID LAYER STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY
 A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/0300Z 17.7N 111.1W    40 KT
  12HR VT     15/1200Z 18.0N 112.0W    40 KT
  24HR VT     16/0000Z 18.4N 113.2W    35 KT
  36HR VT     16/1200Z 18.8N 114.3W    30 KT
  48HR VT     17/0000Z 19.1N 115.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     18/0000Z 19.4N 116.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     19/0000Z 19.5N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     20/0000Z 19.5N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA