956 
 WTNT44 KNHC 150238
 TCDAT4
 
 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number  30
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018
 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018
 
 Isaac has rapidly lost organization since the last advisory. The
 cyclone has been devoid of any deep convection for most of the
 evening, with only a small burst recently forming well to the west
 of where Isaac's low-level center is believed to be located. While
 it is possible, if not likely, that the maximum winds have decreased
 a little since this afternoon due to the lack of convection, the
 initial intensity has been held at 35 kt based on earlier aircraft
 data. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
 Isaac again overnight and will provide a better estimate of the
 strength and status of Isaac.
 
 The global models continue to insist that Isaac could open into a
 trough at any time, and based on the current state of the cyclone,
 this could be imminent. The regional hurricane models, however, show
 the development of one or more mesoscale lows embedded within a
 larger cyclonic envelope that cause Isaac to persist for at least a
 few more days in those models. While the global model solution still
 seems more likely, I can't rule out that Isaac will persist a little
 longer, so the NHC forecast still carries a 72 h forecast point.
 Regardless of whether Isaac is a tropical storm or a tropical wave
 over the next few days, heavy rains and occasional gusty winds are
 still likely across much of the Greater Antilles through the next
 couple of days.
 
 It has been very difficult to try to pinpoint a low-level center of
 Isaac over the past few hours, but based on microwave data it
 appears to still be moving west at about 13 kt. The GFS and ECMWF
 are in very good agreement and show Isaac, or its remnants, moving
 steadily westward for the next several days. The regional models on
 the other hand show a farther north motion, in part due to one or
 more reformations of the center. The NHC forecast continues to favor
 the global model solutions and is on the south side of the guidance
 envelope, however if it becomes clear that Isaac will survive
 longer, a northward adjustment may be required in later advisories.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/0300Z 15.4N  69.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  15/1200Z 15.5N  71.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  16/0000Z 15.7N  73.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  16/1200Z 16.2N  75.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  17/0000Z 16.7N  77.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  18/0000Z 18.7N  81.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky