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 451 
 WTNT44 KNHC 261459
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012
 
 VISIBLE SATELLITE AND IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
 GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
 INNER CORE DEVELOPMENT WITH INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR AND OVER THE
 CENTER...AND A PARTIAL EYEWALL IS IN EVIDENCE ON RADAR IMAGERY.  THE
 BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE DISTINCT OVER THE NORTHERN AND
 EASTERN SEMICIRCLES OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY
 ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 55 KT PENDING OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE
 HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THAT SHOULD BE IN THE CENTER SHORTLY. 
 ISAAC CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
 PATTERN...AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AS THE CYCLONE
 TRAVERSES THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
 THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
 FORECAST AND IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
 GUIDANCE.
 
 THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND DAY 2 HAS BECOME PROBLEMATIC.  DYNAMICAL
 MODELS DEPICT THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
 RIDGE NORTH OF THE GULF COAST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER THERE IS
 A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE MORE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS.  FOR EXAMPLE...
 THE ECMWF FORECAST IS ABOUT 300 N MI EAST OF THE GFS SOLUTION AT DAY
 3.  SINCE THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...THE
 OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MOVED A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
 ONE.  THIS REQUIRES AN EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD
 ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS
 GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
  
 THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
 FORECAST TRACK SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE
 CENTER.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  26/1500Z 23.9N  80.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  27/0000Z 25.0N  82.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  27/1200Z 26.1N  84.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  28/0000Z 27.4N  86.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  28/1200Z 28.5N  87.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  29/1200Z 30.5N  89.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  30/1200Z 32.5N  89.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 120H  31/1200Z 34.5N  89.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
  
 
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