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PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
0900 UTC FRI SEP 29 2006
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 7(32)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 5(26)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 1(15)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 2(17)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) 1(28)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 297N 564W 34 82 6(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
12 297N 564W 50 7 7(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
12 297N 564W 64 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
24 305N 577W 34 30 38(68) 8(76) 3(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)
24 305N 577W 50 1 15(16) 8(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
24 305N 577W 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
36 315N 590W 34 4 32(36) 27(63) 6(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71)
36 315N 590W 50 X 4( 4) 16(20) 6(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27)
36 315N 590W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
48 332N 600W 34 1 7( 8) 25(33) 19(52) 8(60) X(60) X(60)
48 332N 600W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 4(21) 1(22) X(22)
48 332N 600W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
72 395N 600W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 9(43) 1(44)
72 395N 600W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14)
72 395N 600W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
96 465N 510W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 8(33)
96 465N 510W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11)
96 465N 510W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
120 490N 400W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17)
120 490N 400W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
120 490N 400W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40 45 50 50 50 50 50
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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