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 008 
 WTNT44 KNHC 252052
 TCDAT4
  
 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
 500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
  
 THE EYE OF IRENE MOVED OVER ABACO ISLAND EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AN
 AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON THE ISLAND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE
 OF 950.4 MB AROUND 1700 UTC. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
 AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE THIS AFTERNOON HAS REPORTED A 700 MB
 PEAK-FLIGHT WIND OF 99 KT. ALTHOUGH RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA DO NOT
 QUITE SUPPORT THE 100-KT ADVISORY INTENSITY...WE WILL HOLD THE
 INTENSITY FOR A LITTLE LONGER TO SEE IF THE AIRCRAFT FINDS HIGHER
 WINDS.
 
 IRENE CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. THERE HAS
 BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. IRENE IS FORECAST
 TO TURN NORTHWARD BY EARLY FRIDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN
 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED
 TO MOVE ON A HEADING BETWEEN NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A TROUGH
 BYPASSES THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAVE THE IRENE IN A
 STEERING PATTERN THAT SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON THAT GENERAL
 HEADING AS IT MOVES VERY NEAR OR OVER MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE TRACK
 GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION...AND THE
 CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS INCREASING. THE NEW TRACK HAS
 BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD AND IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE. IT IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 1200 UTC GFS. SINCE
 IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE
 EXACT TRACK OF IRENE...AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT WELL
 AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
  
 THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR IRENE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT WILL BE
 MOVING OVER WARM WATER AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW.  HOWEVER...THE
 UPDATED FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE LOWER INTENSITY OVER
 THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS.  IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
 FORECAST TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD START A WEAKENING PROCESS.
 HOWEVER...SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...
 IT WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO WEAKEN.   
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/2100Z 27.0N  77.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
  12H  26/0600Z 28.7N  77.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  26/1800Z 30.6N  77.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
  36H  27/0600Z 32.5N  77.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  27/1800Z 34.5N  76.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
  72H  28/1800Z 39.8N  74.6W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
  96H  29/1800Z 48.5N  68.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  30/1800Z 56.0N  54.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
  
 
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