983 
 WTNT44 KNHC 180226
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  54
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2005
  
 THE ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT MOTION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF IRENE
 WAS GREATLY AIDED BY MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER MEASUREMENTS THIS
 EVENING.  A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2225Z INDICATED THAT IRENE HAS BEEN
 MOVING AT 060/17...A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
 TRACK...AS THE CENTER BEGINS TO DISENGAGE FROM THE STILL STRONG
 CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT
 2150Z SHOWED THAT PEAK WINDS WERE STILL ABOUT 60 KT...BUT THAT THE
 WIND RADII NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED INWARD.  IN PARTICULAR...THE
 CIRCULATION IS SHRINKING IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS A FRONTAL
 ZONE APPROACHES.
 
 THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE GENERAL FORECAST
 THINKING...WHICH HAS IRENE ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
 BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE.  HOWEVER...
 THE 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS ALREADY TAKEN IRENE TOO
 QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...AND SO I HAVE ADJUSTED THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY.  THE GFS SHOWS IRENE BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN THE FRONTAL
 ZONE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...BUT GIVEN PRESENT TRENDS IT MAY TAKE JUST
 A LITTLE LONGER FOR IRENE TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
 
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/0300Z 38.8N  54.5W    60 KT
  12HR VT     18/1200Z 41.9N  50.3W    55 KT
  24HR VT     19/0000Z 48.0N  44.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     19/1200Z...ABSORBED WITHIN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
  
  
 $$