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 805 
 WTNT44 KNHC 152027
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005
 
 AN EYE HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES.  DVORAK
 ANALYSES SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY NEAR 80 KT.  THE HURRICANE
 CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...EXCEPT TO THE
 NORTHWEST.  IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE A LITTLE MORE TO THE
 RIGHT...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DUCKING THE BELT OF WESTERLIES AND
 MUCH STRONGER SHEAR THAT LIES TO ITS NORTH.  THE SHIPS
 MODEL...WHICH USES THE GFS UPPER-LEVEL FORECAST FIELDS...PREDICTS
 THAT THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 35 KT WITHIN 36 HOURS.  WEAKENING
 IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN 12 HOURS OR SO.  WITHIN A COUPLE OF
 DAYS...IRENE IS FORECAST TO TRANSFORM INTO A VIGOROUS
 EXTRATROPICAL STORM.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IT IS
 LIKELY TO BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER BAROCLINIC CYCLONE.  SOME OF THE
 GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...SUGGEST THAT
 IRENE'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS COULD MERGE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM NEAR
 THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS SOON AS 48-72 HOURS FROM NOW.
 
 AS NOTED ABOVE...IRENE'S TRACK HAS BENT A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT
 AND THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS NOW 070/10.  THERE HAS BEEN NO INCREASE
 IN FORWARD SPEED YET...BUT THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
 ACCELERATING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
 SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT OVER THE NEXT DAY
 OR SO.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT IS PREDICTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
 DAYS...DUE TO AN APPROACHING 500 MB MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  BASED ON
 THE INITIAL MOTION...THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE
 RIGHT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS FASTER
 THAN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS...BUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE
 MEAN.
 
 WIND RADII FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON
 INPUT FROM OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
  
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/2100Z 36.7N  66.0W    80 KT
  12HR VT     16/0600Z 37.3N  64.0W    80 KT
  24HR VT     16/1800Z 38.4N  61.5W    70 KT
  36HR VT     17/0600Z 40.0N  58.5W    60 KT
  48HR VT     17/1800Z 43.0N  54.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     18/1800Z 50.5N  43.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     19/1800Z 58.0N  35.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     20/1800Z...ABSORBED
  
 $$
 
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