116 
 WTNT44 KNHC 151430
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005
 
 IRENE REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED...AND ALTHOUGH NO EYE WAS EVIDENT ON
 THE GEOSYNCHRONOUS IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT MAY APPEAR
 SOON.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOUT 75
 KNOTS...AND THAT IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  THE HURRICANE
 IS RATHER CLOSE TO A BELT OF MUCH STRONGER WESTERLIES...JUST TO ITS
 NORTH...AND SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER SHEAR.  HOWEVER IRENE HAS TURNED
 SOMEWHAT MORE EASTWARD...AND THIS MAY DELAY SLIGHTLY THE INCREASE
 IN SHEAR.    HENCE A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
 THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.  BY 48 HOURS...IRENE SHOULD HAVE PASSED
 THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND IS LIKELY TO BEGIN LOSING
 TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  OFFICIAL FORECAST POINTS ARE GIVEN
 THROUGH 96 HOURS BUT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IRENE'S
 EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT MAY MERGE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING OFF THE
 CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 48-72 HOURS.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS 050/10...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY.  NOT MUCH CHANGE IS SEEN IN THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO.  
 IRENE WILL SOON BE ACCELERATED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY THE
 MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  SHOULD IRENE'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS BE
 MAINTAINED AS A DISTINCT ENTITY...THEY WILL LIKELY TURN MORE TO THE
 LEFT LATE IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING 500 MB
 TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THAT
 FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT GENERALLY A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
 MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/1500Z 36.5N  67.2W    75 KT
  12HR VT     16/0000Z 37.4N  65.3W    80 KT
  24HR VT     16/1200Z 38.5N  62.5W    75 KT
  36HR VT     17/0000Z 40.0N  59.5W    65 KT
  48HR VT     17/1200Z 42.0N  56.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     18/1200Z 49.0N  46.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     19/1200Z 57.0N  38.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$