725 
 WTNT44 KNHC 140234
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005
  
 IRENE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
 WITH A STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED OVER AND
 SOUTH OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A 13/2232Z SSMI
 OVERPASS DEPICTED A LARGE BUT CLOSED EYE FEATURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS
 ...BUT THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WERE STILL OPEN TO THE
 NORTH. THE LAST RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA SUPPORTED 55-60 KT...
 SO WITH THE INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THAT TIME...AN
 INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 60 KT SEEMS... ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE STRONGER.
 IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES...THEN THE NEXT RECON
 FLIGHT AT 06Z SHOULD FIND IRENE AS A HURRICANE.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/09. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
 CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING THROUGH 96
 HOURS. IRENE APPEARS TO BE MOVING THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE BERMUDA
 RIDGE AND IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND THEN
 TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE BY MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE GETS
 CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES THAT LIE ACROSS
 THE NORTHERN U.S. AND NORTH ATLANTIC. BY 96 HOURS...A DEEP-LAYER
 MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE
 THE THEN EXTRATROPICAL IRENE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FAR NORTH
 ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS
 AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 96 HOURS...AND THEN
 FASTER AND TO THE LEFT AFTER THAT.
 
 GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE NOTED IN THE SSMI IMAGERY
 AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION...IRENE COULD BECOME A
 LITTLE STRONGER THAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES ONTO AND NORTH OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS
 WHERE THE STEERING FLOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE ALIGNED AND REDUCE THE
 SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
 PACKAGE AND REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/0300Z 32.0N  69.9W    60 KT
  12HR VT     14/1200Z 33.5N  70.0W    65 KT
  24HR VT     15/0000Z 35.6N  69.3W    65 KT
  36HR VT     15/1200Z 37.4N  67.3W    65 KT
  48HR VT     16/0000Z 38.7N  64.3W    60 KT
  72HR VT     17/0000Z 41.0N  58.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     18/0000Z 45.0N  50.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     19/0000Z 55.0N  38.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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