667 
 WTNT44 KNHC 131440
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005
  
 EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE CLOUD PATTERN WAS SHAPELESS AND CONSISTED
 OF A BLOB OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND OUTFLOW
 PRIMARILY TO THE WEST. SINCE THEN...LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGES
 SHOW A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN.  HOWEVER...IRENE HAS
 BEEN A PECULIAR CYCLONE THAT HAS NEVER HAD A PERSISTENT SYMMETRIC
 CLOUD PATTERN. THE INTENSITY MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER BUT THE DVORAK
 CLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT 60 KNOT WINDS. THEREFORE...INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS UNTIL A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKS
 IRENE LATER TODAY. HOPEFULLY THERE WILL BE NO SURPRISES.  SHIPS
 MODEL INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM BUT
 BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER HOSTILE...SHIPS IS NOT
 SHOWING STRENGTHENING. THE SAME GOES FOR THE GFDL WHICH DOES NOT
 SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS UNTIL IRENE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
 WESTERLIES AT HIGHER LATITUDES...PROBABLY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
 CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR IRENE TO BECOME
 A HURRICANE BUT IT IS ONLY AN INCREASE OF 5 KNOTS.
 
 BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THERE
 HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN SO IRENE SHOULD
 GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
 SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
 MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IRENE
 IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 120 HOURS OVER THE COOLER WATERS
 OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
 
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/1500Z 30.7N  69.2W    60 KT
  12HR VT     14/0000Z 31.8N  70.0W    60 KT
  24HR VT     14/1200Z 33.5N  70.0W    65 KT
  36HR VT     15/0000Z 35.5N  69.4W    65 KT
  48HR VT     15/1200Z 37.6N  68.4W    65 KT
  72HR VT     16/1200Z 39.6N  64.0W    65 KT
  96HR VT     17/1200Z 42.0N  58.5W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     18/1200Z 45.1N  49.9W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
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