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 242 
 WTPA42 PHFO 242050
 TCDCP2
 
 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012006
 1100 AM HST THU AUG 24 2006
 
 IOKE HAS INTENSIFIED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND
 ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE
 DAY SHOW A NICE SYMMETRIC HURRICANE WITH A 20 NM WIDE EYE AND
 EYEWALL CONVECTION WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND.  THE SSMI PASS FROM
 1726 UTC ALSO INDICATED A CLOSED EYEWALL.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
 CPHC...AFWA...JTWC AND SAB ALL INDICATE 127 KT SO THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 125 KT...OR CATEGORY 4 ON THE
 SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290 AT 6 KT AS IOKE PASSES SOUTH OF A
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE DATELINE IS
 RETREATING NORTHWESTWARD AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A NORTHEAST TO
 SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD
 AHEAD OF IOKE AND IMPART A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION ON THE HURRICANE
 FROM DAYS 2 THROUGH 4.  A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG WITH A
 DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC SHOULD PULL IOKE BACK ON
 A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY DAY 5.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
 AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE DYNAMIC OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE
 CLUSTERED RATHER TIGHTLY THROUGH DAY 5.  THE FORECAST IS A BIT SOUTH
 OF THE DYNAMIC CONSENSUS AND SLIGHT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
 THROUGH DAY 2...THEN CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CLUSTER OF DYNAMIC
 GUIDANCE TRACKS FROM DAYS 2 THROUGH 5.
 
 CONSIDERABLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST BOTH
 IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF IOKE AND ESPECIALLY
 OUT TO DAY 5.  SST VALUES ARE NEARLY 28C AND THE FORECAST TRACK
 WILL TAKE THE HURRICANE OVER 29C WATERS SO THIS ASPECT FAVORS
 SYSTEM MAINTENANCE OR EVEN FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  THE 1800 UTC
 CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES ONLY 1.0 M/S VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE
 NEAR TERM SHEAR VALUES SHOULD REMAIN LOW.  AS THE RIDGE
 STRENGTHENS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT SOME DEGREE OF NORTHERLY TO
 NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR FROM 48 HOURS WILL INDUCE SOME MODEST
 WEAKENING.  OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FAVORS KEEPING IOKE AT
 LEAST AT CATEGORY 3 LEVELS THOUGH THE GFDI WANTS TO INCREASE IT TO
 CATEGORY 5 AFTER 48 HOURS.  A HURRICANE OF THIS INTENSITY IS
 EXPECTED TO HAVE RAPID AND TOUGH TO FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN
 INTENSITY BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MAINTAINING IOKE AT CURRENT
 LEVELS THROUGH 36 HOURS.  SLIGHT WEAKENING TO 115 KT FROM SOME
 SHEAR EFFECTS IS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS. IN SUMMARY...MAJOR
 HURRICANE STATUS ALL THE WAY.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/2100Z 18.8N 173.3W   125 KT
  12HR VT     25/0600Z 19.2N 174.3W   125 KT
  24HR VT     25/1800Z 19.6N 175.6W   125 KT
  36HR VT     26/0600Z 19.7N 177.0W   125 KT
  48HR VT     26/1800Z 19.6N 178.4W   120 KT
  72HR VT     27/1800Z 18.7N 179.0E   115 KT
  96HR VT     28/1800Z 18.9N 176.3E   115 KT
 120HR VT     29/1800Z 20.1N 174.0E   115 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KODAMA
  
 
 
 
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