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 863 
 WTPA42 PHFO 220839
 TCDCP2
 
 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012006
 1100 PM HST MON AUG 21 2006
 
 IOKE HAS STRENGTHENED FURTHER WITH ITS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NOW
 ESTIMATED TO BE 115 KNOTS MAKING IT A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. 
 IT HAS BEEN MOVING DUE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AFTER
 A GRADUAL TURN FROM A MORE WESTERLY TRACK PREVIOUSLY. IT HAS SO FAR
 BEEN FOLLOWING GENERAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAIRLY WELL. AS MENTIONED 
 EARLIER MOST MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO RETURN IOKE BACK TOWARD A MORE 
 WESTERLY AFTER THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER PRESSURE
 TO ITS NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HOWEVER WATER VAPOR CONTINUES 
 TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LOW NORTH OF HAWAII MOVING TOWARD THE WEST.
 WE WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WHICH SHOWS A COMPROMISED 
 BEND TOWARD THE WEST. THE INTENSITY TREND ALSO HAS SOME ROOM FOR 
 DOUBT...THE AMOUNT OF SHEARING IN THE LATER PERIODS IS DEPENDENT ON 
 THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE EARLIER MENTIONED LOW ALOFT. WE 
 HAVE KEPT THE MODEST WEAKENING TREND OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
  
 ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD IMMEDIATELY
 PREPARE FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      22/0900Z 14.9N 168.1W   115 KT
  12HR VT     22/1800Z 16.2N 169.2W   120 KT
  24HR VT     23/0600Z 17.3N 170.5W   120 KT
  36HR VT     23/1800Z 18.2N 171.6W   115 KT
  48HR VT     24/0600Z 18.9N 172.6W   110 KT
  72HR VT     25/0600Z 20.3N 174.7W   105 KT
  96HR VT     26/0600Z 21.4N 177.0W   105 KT
 120HR VT     27/0600Z 22.3N 179.6W   105 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER MATSUDA
  
 
 
 
 
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