563 
 WTNT45 KNHC 151450
 TCDAT5
  
 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
 1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013
  
 NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT JUST COMPLETED SEVERAL HOURS OF
 INVESTIGATION OF INGRID...AND FOUND LITTLE TO INDICATE THAT THE
 CYCLONE IS STILL A HURRICANE.  THE HIGHEST RAIN-CORRECTED SFMR
 OBSERVATION WAS 58 KT.  A DROPSONDE NORTH OF THE CENTER SPLASHED
 WITH 59 KT BUT THE LAYER-AVERAGED SURFACE-ADJUSTED WINDS WERE 53-54
 KT.  THE PRESSURE IS UP TO 990 MB...AND MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT
 THE CENTER IS NEARLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
 CONVECTION.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
 TO 65 KT.  THE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS DISRUPTED THE CYCLONE IS
 FORECAST TO LESSEN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE NEXT 24
 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A MODEST AMOUNT OF
 RESTRENGTHENING...BUT THIS FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE
 INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
 
 THE PAST FEW FIXES POINT-TO-POINT SHOWED A WESTWARD MOTION...BUT A
 LONGER-TERM ESTIMATE IS 290/5.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
 TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...WHICH CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN TO THE
 SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 CONTINUES TO LIE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  THE
 TIMING OF LANDFALL IS A LITTLE HARD TO NAIL DOWN GIVEN THE
 SHEAR...AS A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL MOVE MORE QUICKLY TOWARD THE COAST
 WHILE A STRONGER ONE WILL LIKELY TAKE A MORE LEISURLY PATH.
  
 THE PRIMARY THREAT...APART FROM THE WIND HAZARD IN THE IMMEDIATE
 LANDFALL AREA...IS GOING TO BE FROM RAINFALL AND THE RESULTANT
 FLOODING.  WITH BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM
 MANUEL BRINGING COPIOUS RAINS TO CENTRAL MEXICO...LIFE-THREATENING
 FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER
 THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/1500Z 22.5N  95.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  16/0000Z 22.8N  96.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  16/1200Z 23.0N  97.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  17/0000Z 22.8N  98.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  48H  17/1200Z 22.5N  99.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN