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 880 
 WTNT45 KNHC 150853
 TCDAT5
  
 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013
  
 ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF INGRID IS SOMEWHAT RAGGED-LOOKING...
 THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING VERY STRONG DEEP CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS
 CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
 AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND THE CURRENT
 INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 75 KT.  A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
 AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING INGRID AND WILL SOON PROVIDE MORE PRECISE
 INFORMATION ABOUT THE INTENSITY...BUT PRELIMINARY OBSERVATIONS FROM
 THAT AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO RECENT INCREASE IN THE
 WINDS.  INGRID WAS ABLE TO STRENGTHEN DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
 MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SOME
 RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR IN A DAY OR SO...SO SOME ADDITIONAL
 STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL WIND
 SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE
 STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.
 
 ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH INFRARED SATELLITE
 IMAGERY...A VERY RECENT CENTER FIX FROM THE NOAA PLANE INDICATES
 THAT INGRID HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...WITH A MOTION
 ESTIMATE OF 315/6.  FOLLOWING THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
 MID-LEVEL RIDGE...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST
 AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.  NO IMPORTANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
 THE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. 
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
 AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST HWRF MODEL FORECAST.
   
 IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...THE MOIST FLOW
 RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL
 IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS.
 LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A
 SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/0900Z 22.4N  95.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  15/1800Z 22.9N  96.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  16/0600Z 23.1N  97.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  16/1800Z 23.1N  98.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
  48H  17/0600Z 22.8N  99.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  72H  18/0600Z 22.4N 100.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 
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