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 596 
 WTNT45 KNHC 142039
 TCDAT5
  
 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013
  
 THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA
 OF INGRID UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AN EYE FEATURE HAS
 BEEN PRESENT INTERMITTENTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...AND
 DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES...INCLUDING THE UNIVERSITY OF
 WISCONSIN...INDICATE THAT INGRID HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH AN
 INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. INGRID IS THE SECOND HURRICANE OF
 THE 2013 SEASON.
  
 BOTH OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
 SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...
 BEFORE THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST.
 THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
 CONSENSUS...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE LGEM/SHIPS MODEL PAIR. NONE OF
 THE CURRENT GUIDANCE FORECASTS INGRID TO BECOME AN MAJOR
 HURRICANE.
  
 INGRID HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 6 OR 7 KNOTS AWAY
 FROM THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SOON...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
 BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND WILL FORCE
 THE HURRICANE TO TURN WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO. WHILE
 THE THE WESTWARD TURN IS VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR...AS SHOWN BY ALL THE
 MODELS...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF LANDFALL. THE GFS
 CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST MODEL...KEEPING INGRID OVER WATER FOR
 ABOUT 60 HOURS OR MORE WHILE THE NHC FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER TO
 THE COAST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
 MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...GIVING CREDIT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TURN
 INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS LATER IN THE FORECAST
 PERIOD.
  
 IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
 COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN
 PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. LIFE-THREATENING
 FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER
 THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  14/2100Z 21.3N  94.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  15/0600Z 22.0N  94.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  15/1800Z 22.7N  95.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  16/0600Z 22.8N  97.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  16/1800Z 22.5N  98.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
  72H  17/1800Z 22.0N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  96H  18/1800Z 21.5N  99.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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