696 
 WTNT45 KNHC 141445
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
 1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013
  
 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
 HOURS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT INGRID HAS
 INTENSIFIED. THE PEAK WIND REPORTED SO FAR BY THE AIR FORCE PLANE
 WAS 76 KNOTS AT 850 MB NORTH OF THE CENTER A FEW MINUTES AGO. ON
 THIS BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KNOTS. CONDITIONS ARE
 FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
 HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON.  AFTER THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT
 STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE
 SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME. THE NHC
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST VALUES
 PROVIDED BY THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
  
 INGRID MOVED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT BUT IT IS NOW
 MOVING NORTHWARD OR 010 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST
 THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
 IN ABOUT A DAY...AND THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE INGRID TO
 MOVE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK IN 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE WESTWARD
 TURN HAS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY TO OCCUR AS INDICATED BY ALL
 MODELS...THE TIMING OF THE CYCLONE CROSSING THE COAST OF MEXICO
 VARIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE SLOWEST MODEL IS THE GFS WHICH KEEPS
 INGRID OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 3 MORE DAYS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY
 CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE CENTER OF INGRID
 NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
  
 IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
 COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN
 PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. LIFE-THREATENING
 FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER
 THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
  
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  14/1500Z 20.6N  94.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  15/0000Z 21.4N  94.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  15/1200Z 22.0N  94.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  16/0000Z 22.5N  96.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  16/1200Z 22.5N  97.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  17/1200Z 22.0N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  96H  18/1200Z 21.5N  99.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
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 FORECASTER AVILA