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 137 
 WTNT45 KNHC 140855
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INGRID HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
 ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF COLDER
 THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER AND INCREASING OUTER BANDING IN ALL
 QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST.  A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0420 UTC SHOWED
 A PARTIAL EYEWALL IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE....ALTHOUGH DATA FROM
 THE MEXICAN RADAR IN ALVARADO SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE BEEN
 TRANSIENT.   SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND
 45 KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT...PERHAPS
 CONSERVATIVELY...PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE
 HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
  
 INGRID HAS STARTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN
 INITIAL MOTION OF 015/3. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR
 THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
 AND THEN THE WEST AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL
 RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
 GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME NOTABLE
 ISSUES OF SPREAD. FIRST...THE GFS AND ECMWF CALL FOR A MORE
 NORTHEASTWARD INITIAL MOTION BEFORE THE WESTWARD TURN...WITH BOTH
 MODELS LYING TO THE EAST OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK. SECOND...THE
 GUIDANCE LANDFALL POINTS IN MEXICO ARE SPREAD FROM TUXPAN TO NORTH
 OF LA PESCA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
 TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 HOWEVER...THE MODEL SPREAD INDICATES A LOWER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE
 IN THE FORECAST.
  
 THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT INGRID WILL CONTINUE TO
 EXPERIENCE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST 15-25 KT OF SHEAR DURING THE FIRST 24
 HOURS...WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS LESS SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY
 GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM
 MODELS FORECAST INGRID TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS...WHILE
 THE GFDL AND HWRF MODEL FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PEAK IN 24 HOURS AND
 SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN BEFORE LANDFALL.  SINCE THE CURRENT SHEAR HAS
 NOT STOPPED INGRID FROM INTENSIFYING...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
 FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALONG WITH SHIPS AND LGEM...AND
 MAKES INGRID A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT
 THE UPPER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
  
 IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
 COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN
 PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE-THREATENING
 FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER
 THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  14/0900Z 19.8N  95.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  14/1800Z 20.5N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  15/0600Z 21.5N  95.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  15/1800Z 22.2N  96.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  16/0600Z 22.4N  97.7W   70 KT  80 MPH...NEAR COAST OF MEXICO
  72H  17/0600Z 22.5N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  96H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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