402 
 WTNT45 KNHC 132043
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
 400 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
  
 THE OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
 CAUSING A LITTLE BIT OF SHEAR...AND THE CENTER OF INGRID IS LOCATED
 ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. OVERALL...THERE
 HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...AND THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KNOTS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED
 FROM A DROPSONDE FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET EARLIER TODAY WAS 999 MB.
 SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX...THE
 NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
 INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL. WE NOTE...HOWEVER...THAT THE STATISTICAL
 SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR INGRID TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE
 TIME OF LANDFALL. 
  
 INGRID IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
 MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ERRATICALLY FOR THE NEXT
 6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY
 THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FORECAST INGRID TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR
 THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER
 TEXAS...INGRID SHOULD MAKE A SHARP LEFT TURN TOWARD THE COAST OF
 MEXICO AND THEN MOVE INLAND. THIS IS THE SCENARIO USED IN THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF
 INGRID NEVER GETS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.       
 
 IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST FLOW FROM
 BOTH INGRID AND MANUEL WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. AT THIS
 TIME...THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING
 FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  13/2100Z 19.2N  95.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  14/0600Z 19.5N  95.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  14/1800Z 20.8N  95.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  15/0600Z 21.7N  96.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  15/1800Z 22.3N  97.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  16/1800Z 22.5N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  96H  17/1800Z 22.5N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
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 FORECASTER AVILA